The 4th of July, next week Saturday, sees the running of the
Durban July, South Africa’s most historic and recognizable race.It’s a Grade 1 staged over 2200m at
Greyville, attracting widespread public interest and huge betting pools.
To aid Interbet punters in forming an opinion, below is a preview listing career best speed figures for every horse in the 18 - runner field.
By factoring in the weight to be carried and adding a few tweaks based on form/overall career record, a performance rating is arrived at, listed to the right.
Relating running styles to track conditions is an important factor too, but that can only be known on the day. The four main contenders, after crunching the numbers, are bolded:
1.
ISIVIVANE s/s 105 54
2.
REGULATION s/s 109 59
3.
THE ULTIMATE KING s/s 104 50,5
4.
STAR MAJOR s/s 114 58
5.
LEGAL COUNSEL s/s 112 55
6.
HAZY DAZY s/s 100 45,5
7.
WISH LIST s/s 110 58,5
8.
GLADATORIAN s/s 112 51
9.
VIVA’S LIBERTE s/s 106 56
10.
NATIVE RULER s/s 107 49,5
11.
NOTE TO SELF s/s 108 56
12.
ZEITZ s/s 107 57
13.
MOCHA BLEND s/s 102 46
14.
I SALUTE YOU s/s 103 53
15.
OLIVIA’S WAY s/s 105 50
16.
MINOGUE s/s 102 46
17.
KING PELLES s/s 104 47
18.
ALADDIN’S LAMP s/s 103 53
The ratings are extremely close with Justin Snaith’s strategically placed, well handicapped older horse,
Regulation’s 59 marginally edging stable companion,
Wish List on 58,5.
Regulation does have a history of breathing issues so comes with a health warning, but his world class conditioner is adept at getting horses right for prestigious races. Whether the filly,
Wish List can cope with the rough and tumble of the D.J. remains to be seen but she possesses a powerful turn of foot and has overcome adversity before, so rates a major player.
James Crawford’s ante-post favorite,
Star Major 58 has been mighty impressive in two flashy wins leading up to the July, earning his spot on top of the boards. Andre Nel’s grey charge,
Zeitz 57 is next in line. He thrives in KZN and looks primed to give it a full go. At odds of 17/1 to win and 11/4 to hit the first four,
Zeitz is a reasonable each-way shout.
The dangerous, back up’s include
Viva’s Liberte 56,
Note to Self 56 and
Legal Counsel 55 who could conceivably win if things break right for them, so might be used as alternatives in wider Jackpot and P6 perms. They are followed in the rankings by
Isivivane 54,
I Salute You 53 and
Aladdin’s Lamp 53 who are sensible inclusions in the lower slots of trifectas and quartets.
At this stage a week away from the marquee day, the betting seems spot on, with few glaring discrepancies. However, there are usually significant changes to the odds closer to post time as hot ones shorten and others drift in the market. Keep a keen eye on the Interbet
Exchange
to take advantage of special price promotions and favorable moves about your fancy.
