Part of the appeal of betting on horse racing is how difficult – read challenging, it is to be a winning punter.
There are so many variables to fathom out in every race and making predictions in a dynamic sport with highly strung animals (who can’t, obviously, talk and tell us how they feel) and humans locked in fierce competition, is a tough bind.
Factor in the efficiently priced markets and it becomes a hard game to beat.
Hard, but not impossible. All around the world, there are astute handicappers armed with sharp wagering strategies that do make it pay. Technology has been a big enabler, helping form students crunch lots of data and work out the probabilities quite accurately.
And modern software programs can be designed to carry out optimal wagering strategies at fixed odds or exotic- type bets.
No matter how sophisticated the modelling may be, as is nowadays set up by computer/programming boffins using AI, the traditional fundamentals of horse racing analysis remain the same as before.
They can be listed in four broad categories:
1. Ability
2. Fitness/Form
3. Circumstances
4. Connections.
If you can get a handle on those four basic points about each horse in a race, it’s possible to make sound judgements about their chances and wager intelligently.
Ability can be calculated using speed figures, merit ratings or a “power rating” that captures, as accurately as possible, how good each entry is.
It’s fundamental to understanding horse racing – just as sports bettors need to know the strength of rival soccer teams at the World Cup or the performance level of tennis players in the Wimbledon main draw, before having an opinion.
Form or current condition is important, too. It’s no use if a talented horse is out of shape and unable to deliver his best due to physical issues. So, being primed for the athletic demands of the upcoming race, or not, is a key element when assessing chances.
Circumstances count. Just as some golfers are better in the wind or tennis players are surface – specific and may, for example, do their best work on clay rather than grass, so quirky/fickle horses have preferences, too.
Ideally, you want to focus on thoroughbreds getting the right set up in terms of course, distance, going, pace and draw.
The opposite applies - unfavourable conditions lead to under-performance. It stands to reason that it’s unwise to back horses, say, jumping from a bad draw on a biased track when the probable pace scenario is against them.
Connections. The human element in racing is a crucial factor. Trainers take on big responsibility in caring for and getting their excitable charges super fit. The top trainers are incredibly hard working, spending long hours monitoring and preparing their runners with a fanatical attention to detail that lesser trainers might overlook.
And jockeys, whilst they can’t make horses go much faster than their innate athletic capabilities, nevertheless play a crucial role in race outcomes, particularly in turf races where beaten margin are slim.
A whisker can mean the difference between victory or defeat. Put simply, the top jocks tend to make fewer race riding errors than their less gifted peers.
Nobody is saying handicapping the “ponies” is easy. And the psychological component to any type of speculation is daunting – for example, dealing with losing streaks, being buffeted by bad luck or coming to terms with missed opportunities, all requires mental fortitude.
But by mastering, or at least having a grasp of the handicapping fundamentals, punters give themselves a sporting chance.
By diligently considering Ability, Form, Circumstances and Connections every time they open a race card, horseplayers are laying a solid base for their analysis.
Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.
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