First Filly This Century: Wish List Storms to Derby Victory - Mark van Deventer

First Filly This Century: Wish List Storms to Cape Derby Victory
By Mark van Deventer

Few fillies have attempted, never mind won, the Cape Derby but Wish List became the first this century to do so with an emphatic victory in the historic Kenilworth contest.

She quickened from midfield with a smooth run down the rail to win easing up. The winning time of 126.3 seconds with a closing sectional of 23.8 seconds translates into a speed figure of 106, a point higher than what she achieved when winning the G1 Paddock Stakes a month ago.

Note to Self s/s 105 closed bravely for second spot. He is one to follow as well.

Wish List is trained by Justin Snaith and was ridden with calm assurance by Richard Fourie, who also partnered Questioning to success in the G2 Diadem Stakes.

Vaughan Marshall’s runner is classy, consistent and versatile. He has performed admirably from stiff sprints up to a mile. Alert punters noted his demolition job in the Matchem and an outstanding effort in the King’s Plate when pipped by The Real Prince, backing Questioning heavily into favorite.

After racing closer than usual to the pace cut out by O’Tenikwa, he quickened past that foe before drawing clear in a dominant display. It was worthy of an excellent speed score of 111.

Des McLachlan and Grant van Niekerk have been in deadly form recently and they took out the Jet Master Stakes with Jet Force s/s 103. It was a close-run thing as he came from last to nab I Salute You, Zeitz and Gallic Dream in a rain-spattered, thriller.

Earlier, Princess of Gaul won a false run Prix du Cap which went very slow early, then fast late. She dashed through a 22.37 second come home fraction to thwart Stormwatch. Dean Kannemeyer trains & Craig Zackey rode the valuable daughter of Vercingetorix.

Red Spice won the Cape Nursery with a speed fig of 92 – a fine effort by a juvenile. He snuck through a narrow gap down the inner to catch Glen Kotzen’s two outsiders, Roskilde and Lady Nancy with strongly supported Querari Dancer arriving too late on the scene for a close fourth.

Red Spice is trained by Piet and Elbert Steyn. Keagan de Melo gave the son of Erik the Red a fabulous ride. 

Steyn reported that stable star, Garrix is likely to head off to Hong Kong. It will be interesting to see how he fares there. His best South African performance of 107 recorded in the Green Point Stakes would make him competitive, assuming he acclimatizes and copes fine with the very different Far East environment.

Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.

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Thank you Mark, much appreciated.

I would love to here some of the perspectives from yourself as well as the Clanners that specialize in MR's regarding this race and the participants.

At the risk of throwing shade on Wish List, i was left wondering if the filly is that good or rather if the field was that weak for a Grade 1?

No doubt, there will be some future stars in the field but maybe the best of DBN & more importantly JHB were not represented. I am not having a bitch but one has to take into account that the travel between provinces has become complicated and a "luck of the draw" situation as to how the visitors will perform.

Back to my point, how do you see the Merit Ratings standing up going forward?

The main reason why so few fillies have entered the Derby is the busy program that is available to them against their own sex. The Fillies Guineas in December, followed by the Paddock Stakes and then the Majorca.
For the upcountry fillies that do raid for the Fillies Guineas, they have the triple Tiara and the Empress Club back home.
Wish List skipped the Majorca, and went for the Derby instead, which was sensible as she would have had to bump Double Superlative over that one’s preferred trip.
Furthermore, the colts this year seem decidedly moderate so far, while the fillies are a decent 3yo crop.
 

New MR Derby
Wish list 115 to 117
Note to Self 96 to 118
Viva Liberte 95 to 114

Diadem
O Tenikwa 118 to 121
Teflon Man 102 to 106

Prix Du Cap
Storm watch 102 to 109

Fillies Classic
Beach Verse 85 to 97
Kubu 81 to 92

Jet Master
Jet Force 115 to 117

Jet Force for Durban July.

WHY ISNT JET FORCE NOMINATED FOR DURBAN JULY!!!

Hi TigerShark

You raise some interesting queries.

I think Wish List is a legitimate G1 performer and the runner up Note To Self will also go on to enjoy a productive career in top level races over ground, based on the speed figures they achieved.

On my scale the best 3YO's should be able to record figures above 100 by the middle of the season. Wish List managed 103 in the Cape Fillies Guineas (after a sectional upgrade as she finished powerfully), 105 in the Paddock Stakes and now 106 in the Cape Derby so she is both very good and highly dependable.

One never knows for sure how individual thoroughbreds will mature and develop. If Wish List remains sound and makes natural physical progress then both she and second placed, Note To Self could make a big splash in upcoming features.

I will leave the merit rating debate to the official handicappers who tend to drastically inflate the ratings of G1 performers in SA [whether they deserve it or not;] and classic weight theorists like the respected Raceform, who take a considerably more conservative view. 

Yet again, there is again a big gap between these two organisations'' assessments, in this specific case of Wish List and the horses she beat, so there is plenty of leeway in interpreting the result.

With regard to the other point you make: It is a pity that awkward logistics and scheduling prevent more interprovincial contests. As the pool of horses in SA shrinks, it is important that the best take on the best to make racing captivating for fans. Horse racing cannot afford to shrink further into parochialism. 

And the effects of smaller fields being carded as leery connections duck Graded races to avoid getting hammered by the official handicapper is understandable, yet unfortunate. 

Authorities need to do whatever they can to make the betting product as attractive as possible.

Full fields, accurate/correct merit ratings, a varied program that accommodates a mixture of genuinely competitive handicaps together with traditional W.F.A. contests featuring the best array of horses from around the country - well, that is my wish list for racing in SA to prosper.

Kind regards

Mark van D