Cape Derby Day 2026 Preview
By Mark van Deventer
Saturday afternoon is Derby Day at Kenilworth, with a carryforward P6 pool which could reach three million worth shooting for – it stretches from Race 4 to Race 9.
Short previews follow for each Leg of the Wager:
RACE 4: Starting off with the Cape of Good Hope Nursery is not ideal as there is little form to go on, and juveniles can make drastic improvement from one start to the next.
The top speed figure of 90 goes to
Red Spice whilst
Querari Dancer’s debut win represents strong form.
Others to consider are
Lady Nancy (stayed on nicely behind
Red Spice last time from far back and will enjoy this stiff sprint) and World Series for Vaughan Marshall/Gavin Lerena – a high percentage combo.
Likewise,
Casperita for Alan Greeff/Richard Fourie is respected even if her debut win speed figure was unremarkable.
RACE 5: Is a small field, listed
Cape Fillies Classic where 7 entries go 1800m. Well bought 60K “cheapie”
Queen Regent s/s 97 comes out on top over
Kattekwaadkwadraad s/s 95 and
Beach Verse s/s 95.
The selection should be able to make her own luck racing handy from a low draw. She doesn’t have a big edge on the figures though so adding the other two as back up’s could be needed.
RACE 6: the G3
Prix du Cap over 1400m: Again, a small field which reduces the number of possible winning combinations in the P6. But going too short here could be too risky as they are closely clustered on the numbers.
Babelicious s/s 100 and
Princess of Gaul s/s 100 met last time with little in it.
Stormwatch also has a peak fig of 100.
Trying to crawl through on your belly with just those three is a gamble – adding
Roccapina s/s 103?
Call me Secret s/s 98 and
Scarlet Macaw s/s 97 may be needed. And if you go that far you may as well, include the field by adding
Swiatek and
Viva La Vida.
RACE 7: the
Diadem Stakes (G2) over 1200m: A full field of 15 will face the starter.
Questioning s/s 114 is clearly top rated and would be a bold single.
High class 3YO,
All the Rage s/s 109 + is next best.
Future Variety s/s 109 clocks in third.
It’s a personal choice whether to play even wider by including
Teflon Man s/s 109,
Outlaw King s/s 110,
O’Tenikwa s/s 108,
Asiye Phambili s/s 108 and
I am Giant s/s 108.
Marginal cases can be made for
Surjay s/s 107 and
Meu Capitano s/s 108.
RACE 8:
Cape Derby G1 over 2000m: The filly
Wish List s/s 106 comes out nicely on top of the ratings making her another possible banker.
She has most to fear from Snaith Racing, stable mates,
Note To Self s/s 103 and
Happy Verse s/s 102 plus
Politician Stakes winner,
Star Major s/s 103.
Viva’s Liberte s/s 102+ is the dark horse stretching out to a longer route. He could make significant improvement under Candice Bass’’ patient handling. Whether it will be enough to bridge the gap in the figures with Wish List only the race will reveal.
RACE 9:
Jet Master Stakes over 1600m: A difficult final hurdle with only the returning stayer,
Otto Luyken and out of form veteran,
Gem King “obvious” eliminations out of the nine runners.
If you’ve made it this far then including, in card order,
Gallic Dream,
Zeitz,
Captain West,
Sugar Mountain,
Snow Pilot,
I Salute You and
Jet Force is the advised play to optimize coverage as they all have similar speed figures between 105 - 108.
If budgetary constraints force shaving down the perm, the top four are
Jet Force,
Gallic Dream,
Snow Pilot and
Sugar Mountain.
Leg by Leg Summary with Main Selections bolded and Alternatives in italics:
LEG 1 –
5 7 8 9 1
LEG 2 –
1 2 7
LEG 3 –
2 4 5 1 3 6 7 8
LEG 4 –
3 13 1 2 4 5 8 11 12 15
LEG 5 –
2 5 6 1 7
LEG 6 –
10 3 7 6 4 5 8
Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.
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